The Future of Newspapers

Considering increased bandwidth penetration, swift changes in readership habits and the popularity of social media, the news industry is extremely volatile right now. It’s no wonder we continue to read about newspapers testing new tactics (one, two), trimming fat and narrowing their pages in an effort to boost the bottomline.

The Wall Street Journal and USA Today got slimmer. So did the Los Angeles Times. The New York Times is planning to do it. And today I read in Crain’s Chicago Business that the Chicago Tribune is joining the club.

As circulations decline faster than ever, newspapers are looking for miracle grow. The slimmer WSJ edition is projected to save $18 million a year.

With ample supply of inexpensive or free news content available online (kudos to bloggers and podcasters), the demand for traditional news media is weakening and, as such, the demand for traditional news media advertising is decreasing. To stabilize circulation and advertising, traditional news media are forced to transition to new business models that attempt to uncover new revenue sources, as well as provide more inexpensive (or free), easily accessible content.

Journalism.org’s “The State of The News Media 2006,” points to one senior media executive who said the situation amounts to a race against time. The report asks, “Can newspapers keep pace with changing media consumption patterns and some formidable competitors?”

Time talked with some newspaper insiders about the industry’s gradual demise and asked them to forecast the long-term fate of newspapers. Here are some interesting quotes from the future forum:

// “The word newspaper is going to disappear. The definition of news is broadening and the way we’re delivering it is changing. But we’ll continue to have newspapers in print because people appreciate the way they’re organized and the tactile experience. They’ll be smaller, slimmer and more targeted.”
Scott Bosley, executive director of the American Society of Newspaper Editors

// “Newspapers have three attributes that will for a time, make them still relevant. They are low-cost or no cost, they are highly portable, and you can scan through more bits of information on a printed news page faster than you can on a PC, online, on a PDA or on a cell phone.”
Andrew Davis, president of the American Press Institute

// “In 30 years, the Web will be a much stronger component, but you will still see a powerful print product that people want to pick up and read. There will be advances in newspaper delivery: not just Web sites, but a printed product on a notebook of some kind that you could access electronically.”
John Kimball, chief marketing officer for the Newspaper Association of America

// “There is a significant pricing gap between new media and old media. The cost to reach 1,000 people is $20 for newspapers, but just $5 for those online. Advertisers definitely have more choices today.”
Alexia Quadrani, media analyst, Bear Stearns

// “If there were a newspaper strike across America today, almost no one under the age of 30 would notice. One way things may change, and no newspaper is ready to do this yet, is for papers to focus on the editions that are profitable, like the Friday and Sunday editions, and gradually phase out the Monday, Tuesday and Saturday papers that have less advertising and less content. Eventually, you’re not going to see seven-days-a-week, 365-days-a-year papers.”
Jeffrey Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future, University of Southern California

// “But circulation will probably continue to decline at 1% plus per year going forward. That’s why it’s key for newspapers to reinvent themselves in terms of sources of revenue.”
John Janedis, senior media analyst, Wachovia Securities

// “We will still have newspapers, but they’ll probably be very different from what most of us think of now. They’ll be physically smaller, as they move to what designer Mario Garcia calls the ‘compact’ a more tabloid-like, compact size. I disagree with the assumption that newspapers will die. But we need to train journalists for multimedia reporting.”
Karen Dunlap, president, Poynter Journalism Institute